Sustainable prediction of epidemic spread and building up urban health: A case study of Hillah, Iraq, using Weka for intelligent city development

Authors

  • Najah M. L. Al Maimuri Building and Construction Techniques Engineering Department, College of Engineering and Engineering Techniques, Al-Mustaqbal University, Hillah, Babylon 51001, Iraq
  • Tamar Maitham Al-Asedi Building and Construction Techniques Engineering Department, College of Engineering and Engineering Techniques, Al-Mustaqbal University, Hillah, Babylon 51001, Iraq
  • Nora AL-Anssari Building and Construction Techniques Engineering Department, College of Engineering and Engineering Techniques, Al-Mustaqbal University, Hillah, Babylon 51001, Iraq
  • Mohammed Al-Fatlawi Building and Construction Techniques Engineering Department, College of Engineering and Engineering Techniques, Al-Mustaqbal University, Hillah, Babylon 51001, Iraq
  • Zaidoon Najah Mahdi Al Mamouri Architectural Engineering Department, Babylon University, Hillah, Babylon 51001, Iraq
  • Farhan Lafta Rashid Petroleum Engineering Department, College of Engineering, University of Kerbala, Karbala 56001, Iraq
  • Omran I Mohammed Building and Construction Techniques Engineering Department, College of Engineering and Engineering Techniques, Al-Mustaqbal University, Hillah, Babylon 51001, Iraq
  • Ashraf Anwar Al-Khazraji Building and Construction Techniques Engineering Department, College of Engineering and Engineering Techniques, Al-Mustaqbal University, Hillah, Babylon 51001, Iraq
  • Sabah Mohammed Building and Construction Techniques Engineering Department, College of Engineering and Engineering Techniques, Al-Mustaqbal University, Hillah, Babylon 51001, Iraq

Keywords:

Epidemic, Prediction model, Intelligent city, Weka program, Infrastructure redesigning

Abstract

The current modeling study involved the development of a new statistical model for predicting the spread of infectious epidemics and counts the expected number of infections in crowded cities and how to develop infected cities into intelligent cities according to international standards. The study was completed based on historical infections that occurred in the city of Hillah in central Iraq and the Weka program was used to evaluate the infection number on the basis of historical infections, city’s infrastructure, metrological elements, and social education. The study included the scenarios of predicting the infections of epidemic due to Changing Infrastructure and Intelligent City scenarios. It was found the percent reduction of infections in the Changing Infrastructure of a city was ranged between (39.3%-100%) in January and between (6.5%-25.7%) in July, while in the case of Intelligent City the percent reduction was ranged between (66.6%-100%) in January and between (30.5%-75.2%) in July 2030. The main finding is that the number of infections decreases mainly by relying on the restructuring of infrastructure according to intelligent cities and the infection number is affected a lot by climate changes, especially the temperatures that are unfortunately uncontrollable. The study recommends using smart city specifications in designing cities to resist epidemics in the future.

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Published

2025-01-30

How to Cite

Al Maimuri , N. M. L., Al-Asedi, T. M., AL-Anssari, N., Al-Fatlawi, M., Al Mamouri, Z. N. M., Rashid, F. L., … Mohammed, S. (2025). Sustainable prediction of epidemic spread and building up urban health: A case study of Hillah, Iraq, using Weka for intelligent city development. Architecture Image Studies, 6(1), 8–25. Retrieved from https://ap2online.com/index.php/ais/article/view/102

Issue

Vol. 6 No. 1 (2025): Territories

Section

Articles